August 24th, 2022: Democrats pull massive upset in bellwether special election as GOP Senate campaigns flail
Mitch McConnell rescues a crumbling Senate campaign while Democrats pull an upset that stirs their hopes of retaining control of congress in November.
AS A QUICK DISCLAIMER:
The late nature of this release is partly due to an outage on Substack yesterday. The draft that I had saved was written before last night’s elections, so I had to re-write quite a bit. Sorry it’s late, but I hope you enjoy!
The long and short of it: What’s driving the news?
🗽 Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan (D) pulled a massive upset in a special election in New York’s 19th District on Tuesday night, winning 52%-48% in a district rated “R+2” by the Nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The special election has largely been characterized as a bellwether indicating midterm enthusiasm, which means this result is excellent news for Democrats.
Going into election night, I thought Marc Molinaro (R) would win this seat, in part due to his history as a strong, mainstream New York Republican. Molinaro has held numerous state and local offices, and even ran a campaign for governor.
As I noted on Twitter, the fact that Molinaro lost is a worrying indicator to Republicans lamenting the nomination of weaker, more extreme candidates in competitive races across the country.
🐘 Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) plainly told reporters “there’s probably a greater likelihood that the House flips…than the Senate.” McConnell cited “candidate quality” as one hinderance to his chances of becoming the Majority Leader once again. It’s a stark admission from a notoriously deft political titan.
🏔 Alaska voters sent a surprising message to pundits last Tuesday, as Democratic underdog Mary Peltola (D) leads her Republican rivals — Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and political consultant Nick Begich (R) with 38% of the vote.
📊 Due to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, Begich — who trails Palin and Peltola — is likely to be eliminated, at which point the candidates ranked second on Begich’s ballots will receive his votes.
Peltola’s campaign feels confident that Begich’s ballots have ranked her second enough to deliver her the victory over Palin.
Peltola — who is Yup’ik — would be the first Alaska Native to be elected to congress. She would also be the first Democrat to represent Alaska in fifty years.
🐊 Florida Democratic voters selected Rep. Charlie Crist (D) — the former GOP Governor who registered as a Democrat in 2012 — to run against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the November general election.
In a decisive victory, Crist ousted a Democratic rising star in Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) — the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida.
Although Crist carries some clout as the former Republican governor of the state, his campaign will need to move mountains in order to oust DeSantis, whose war chest of funding and Presidential-hopeful status have carried him in the polls.
🛩 Casey DeSantis, the first lady of Florida, posted a now-viral video of her husband, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), dressed in a military costume in an attempt to emulate Tom Cruise in the blockbuster sequel “Top Gun: Maverick.”
The video, titled “Top Gov,” seeks to paint DeSantis — who is an Iraq War veteran — as a sharp-shooting, anti-media outlaw whose smug grin and weird, stiff arms are assets, actually.
Some compared DeSantis’s bizarre video to the infamous political disaster of Michael Dukakis’s photo-op with a tank during the 1988 Presidential election.
📑 Last week, prominent news outlets petitioned the Federal District Court in the Southern District of Florida to release the affidavit used to grant the search warrant served at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. The Department of Justice objected to the release, citing potential threats to the still-nascent investigation.
👨⚖️ Federal Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart, who issued the search warrant in question, rejected the DOJ’s argument, ordering a redacted release due to heightened public interest in the case. The DOJ will propose redactions to the court in the coming days, with a release expected to follow.
🗳 Midterm madness heats up
Primaries — and two special elections — were held in New York and Florida Tuesday night. Here are the big-ticket returns that have caught my eye:
New York’s 10th District Democratic Primary: Impeachment Counsel Dan Goldman (D), narrowly snagged the Democratic nomination for this deep-blue open seat in Lower Manhattan and Northwest Brooklyn. His challengers, State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, Rep. Mondaire Jones, and City Councillor Carlina Rivera, splintered the progressive vote, allowing the establishment Democrat to pull off a narrow victory. Progressives were dealt yet another difficult blow in a city that has largely been kind to them in the past.
New York’s 12th District Democratic Primary: Rep. Jerry Nadler (D), who is the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, decisively beat Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D). The New York Times Editorial Board endorsed Nadler, and Maloney’s published interview is rife with cringeworthy gaffes.
New York’s 17th District Democratic Primary: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) faced a progressive challenger in State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi. Biaggi spent most of 2021 campaigning in the third district, only to move last minute to a district she does not live in and has never campaigned in. Maloney beat her decisively, 67%-33%.
New York’s 23rd District Special Election: Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) announced he would resign due to sexual misconduct allegations earlier this year. Joe Sempolinksi (R), his district director, won his seat handily against Max Della Pia (D), 53%-47%. Although, it should be noted that Joe Biden lost this seat to Donald Trump by 12 points, indicating a six-point shift toward Democrats.
Florida Primary Turnout: Tabulations show Democratic voters turned out to vote in Florida’s primaries at a slightly higher rate than they did in 2018, (a blue wave year). Most notably, whereas Republicans led Democrats in primary turnout in Miami-Dade County in 2018, Democrats narrowly overtook them in 2022, suggesting increased enthusiasm among Democrats in the county (a good sign given the significant losses Democrats suffered with Latino voters there in 2020).
However, Republicans turned out at a higher rate than Democrats last night, despite having no high-profile statewide primaries. But these turnout numbers suggest a serious level of enthusiasm from Florida Democrats, who, in 2014 — the last midterm year when Democrats were in control of the White House — turned out at negligible rates. Unusual voter enthusiasm — especially with turnout implications like those in 2018 — means that this election will certainly not be your traditional, “President’s party loses big” kind of midterm. Win, lose, or draw, this means that voters are rejecting the rightward shift of our institutions. That won’t go away.
Lastly, Florida is an extremely pro-choice state. With one of the highest rates of abortion in the country, polling indicates roughly 56% of Florida adults believe abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. (It should be noted that this poll underestimated Kansas’s abortion support by almost 20 points when compared to the recent ballot measure there). Ron DeSantis has notably opposed abortion, signing a 15-week ban into law.
But Florida doesn’t play by the rules of national politics, and I think it’s difficult to assume anything about the implications of national issues on Florida’s voting patters. We usually just have to wait and see.
🏆 New York’s 19th District Special Election
In by far Tuesday night’s biggest news, Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan (D) pulled an upset against Dutchess County Executive and Fmr. State Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), winning 52%-48%. Ryan will succeed Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who stepped down from the Hudson Valley seat earlier this year to join Gov. Kathy Hochul in Albany.
Molinaro, a battle-tested, establishment Republican, ran his campaign just like most sane national Republicans want their candidates to. He tried to focus on the economy, President Biden’s low approval rating, and the general direction of the country, not biting on red meat or cultural issues.
Meanwhile, Ryan made the race almost entirely about abortion. Perched next to all of his “Pat Ryan for Congress” signs was another sign that read “Choice is on the ballot.” This marks a turning point for national campaigns given the fact that historically, Republicans have benefitted from Democrats being reticent to fight back on cultural issues, while Democrats have attempted to hit the GOP on its economic austerity toward the working class (see: 2012).
All in all, these election results prove a few things:
The election was held in an open seat, which generally means that voters revert to partisan instinct rather than incumbency. This bodes very well for Democrats in the 26 open House seats deemed by the Cook Political Report to be competitive.
Democratic incumbents facing tough re-election bids can breathe a sigh of relief, at least for now, as their incumbency factors heavily into their chances.
Suburban voters remained staunchly behind Democrats as they did in 2018 and 2020, disappointing Republicans who saw hope in suburban shifts in Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election.
This marks the fourth post-Dobbs special election and the fourth in which Republicans have let down expectations.
Abortion is a highly motivating issue, it appears. Democratic turnout was roaring in highly-Democratic Ulster County and across the district, which allowed Ryan to pad his margins in competitive counties like Otsego and Dutchess, just enough to keep his head above water.
🐘 McConnell to the rescue…
NRSC Chairman Rick Scott (R-Florida) called in reinforcements last week after cutting over $10 million in ad buys for Republican Senate candidates in highly competitive races. What’s more, GOP operatives have told news outlets that the organization is strapped for cash and falling behind Democrats. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), who faces a tougher-than-expected bid for re-election against Rep. Val Demings (D-Florida), even went on Fox News to beg viewers for money.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), whose warnings back in 2021 about nominating electable candidates evidently fell on deaf ears, has shelled out $28 million in the Ohio Senate race to boost Republicans. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), — a stronger-than-expected Democratic hopeful for the open seat — has raised over $21 million, with $3.5 million in cash on hand. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), the Trump-endorsed author of Hillbilly Elegy, had raised $3.6 million, with an abysmal $628,804 in cash on hand prior to his boost from McConnell.
While Vance remains the favorite to win in Ohio, the payout represents a difficult reality for Republicans vying for the Senate. Instead of spending this large sum of money playing offense by boosting candidates running to unseat Democratic incumbents, it will now be spent defending GOP home turf in a state that Donald Trump won by 8 points.
This spending really caught my eye. For one, I think this means that there’s something about Vance that we don’t know that could damage his campaign in the future. Ryan has dominated the TV airwaves the past several months, with Vance and his backers booking high-volume ad buys for later in the fall and closer to the election. I think Ryan’s campaign understands that they haven’t created a gap big enough for Vance’s efforts to be in vain. That’s why I think Ryan might be holding onto something bigger to hit Vance with later in the campaign.
I know that sounds somewhat elaborate or conspiratorial, but I thought that despite Ryan’s fresher, more authentic campaign style, Ohio has just become too red for him to defeat Vance. But Mitch McConnell, a titan of political maneuvering, would not spend $28 million playing defense unless he absolutely had to.