Lisa Murkowski's Revenge
The infallible centrist Senator is back for her fourth full term in Washington — and this time, she's out of good reasons to follow orders.
Last week, the Biden Administration caught a heavy stream of polemical press coverage after the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) gave ConocoPhillips the green light on The Willow Project, a massive, decades-long oil drilling project along Alaska’s Northern Slope.
Many people, especially those my age, were highly critical of the decision, joining climate hawks and environmentalist groups in criticizing the Biden Administration over its approval of the project. When asked about the project by several of my peers, I was ashamed to say that I wasn’t very well informed on the details. But being it that I went through my “Bernie Bro progressive” phase much earlier than many of my peers, I tend to adopt a posture of skepticism when it comes to uproars on social media that criticize Democrats as not being progressive enough.
After a bit of research, though, I have come to the revolutionary conclusion that I am of a mixed mind on the issue. On the one hand, the empirical evidence seems to suggest that the Willow Project would severely jeopardize the critical arctic ecosystem along Alaska’s northern coast. On the other hand, though, the project has unanimous, bipartisan support among state officials in Alaska, and would bring an explosive new job market to the isolated, indigenous communities on the Northern Slope. The Iñupiat Nation of Alaskan Natives — who account for nearly all of the sparse local population — released a statement in support of the Willow Project, heralding “the enormous benefits it will bring to not only the North Slope, but Alaska and the nation.” Lastly, and at the risk of sounding like a heartless political animal, the political implications of the project are critical. (I’ll get to that in just a moment!)
What interested me most about this whole affair, though, is new reporting from Politico detailing the critical hand Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) had in securing the project’s approval. The fascinating article, which broke quietly on Wednesday, delves into the Senator’s years-long effort to build a strong and constructive relationship with the Biden White House; one which she cashed in on handsomely in securing approval for the Willow Project. Murkowski allegedly had a highly influential say in the nominations of key Interior Department deputies, and cozied up to Louisa Terrell — Biden’s director of legislative affairs — and Steve Ricchetti — a top advisor — over the two years since Biden entered office.
The Senator conceded that a certain degree of “dealmaking” was involved in the project’s approval — and “dealmaking” must have been what it took to get Biden to double back on his campaign promise to deny any new drilling on federal lands. The Alaska Senator supported the nominations of all but one of Biden’s cabinet secretaries, and was one of just three GOP Senators to support the nomination of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court. She was a critical Republican voice in support of Biden’s litany of bipartisan legislative initiatives, and spearheaded investments in electric vehicles, despite her long-standing commitment to her home state’s oil and gas industry.
But Murkowski made a comment to Politico’s Emma Dumain regarding the politics of the project that made my ears perk up:
“I think in terms of the president’s engagement in this, a single state project … doesn’t get elevated to the presidential level, to the senior team, unless there’s political interest”
There are two incredibly juicy implications in this quote, the less-juicy of which I will delineate first. Just two years ago, you would have been crazy to suggest that Biden might be able to win Alaska in 2024. Perhaps you think I’m crazy for even suggesting it now. But the times, they are a changing, Dear Readers. Last year, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) — also a key player in the project’s approval — became the first Democrat in four decades to represent Alaska in the U.S. House. Pundits seem to agree her support in the state is so broad, she’s practically guaranteed her seat in congress as long as she wants it. In November, Peltola fielded an endorsement from Murkowski (a Republican), which she reciprocated. And Alaska’s ranked-choice voting (RCV) system seems to be a major catalyst for an acceleration of recent Democratic gains in the state. In 2020 — before the advent of RCV — Joe Biden pulled off astounding margins in Alaska’a major cities, once bastions of conservative support.
But the second (yes, more juicy!) implication in Senator Murkowski’s statement is this: in The Year of Our Lord 2023, a four-term Republican Senator seems perfectly content with delivering Joe Biden — a Democrat whose success in office has driven base Republicans to apoplexy — a victory in her home state. Murkowski has long been one of Donald Trump’s fiercest critics, and after voting to convict him for his involvement in the January 6th Insurrection, she brushed off a Trump-backed challenge from the right handily. She is, after all, the only person in modern history to have won a write-in campaign for statewide office, a title she earned in 2010. Murkowski — who was a moderate even by Bush-era standards — has become increasingly blunt with her dissatisfaction over her party’s direction in the Trump years, even threatening to leave the GOP in the days after January 6th.
If Joe Biden wins Alaska in 2024, it will be because of Lisa Murkowski and for Lisa Murkowski. In one fell swoop, she will have rebuked Donald Trump, (assuming he is the GOP nominee), in a way in which he couldn’t manage to rebuke her. But she will also be owed a rather significant favor by the President of the United States, (assuming he secures re-election). This kind of political reciprocity — delivering entire states for Presidential candidates — is what got Earl Warren a position as Chief Justice of The U.S. Supreme Court. It’s also a practice that has seldom ever occurred across party lines. And in 2024, Democrats could end up with a 50-50 Senate once again, and even lose control of the chamber. But if Murkowski decides to leave the GOP or even caucus with Democrats, she will have a gigantic set of chips to bargain, offering her a chair on a powerful Senate committee or the prioritization of important legislation of her choice.
Regardless of speculation, regular-old GOP Senators in the 21st Century do not build strong, interconnected relationships with Democratic White Houses, let alone deliver them political victories, if they are intent on building their careers in Republican politics. Whereas in 2022, Murkowski was wise to lay low and tout her conservative bonafides, it’s a new year now, baby. And Lisa Murkowski has returned to Washington with a fresh new mandate and a like-minded Democrat in her state delegation. Lisa Murkowski is ready to play her own hand, and — at least thus far — she’s playing it very well.